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Exchange Traded Funds Observations for week of January 30th, 2017

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January 29, 2017 0 comments

The Power Ratio remains solidly bullish at 66%.  You can see the updated Power Score Ratio Here

It might not be the strongest we’ve seen in recent weeks but still shows 2 out of 3 funds with positive Power Scores.

I like to look at extremes to see what’s the strongest and weakest in the overall ETF Heat Map and also various sectors.  It can be insightful, and if nothing else – fascinating.

What is the Strongest ETF right now?

CS Velocity Shares Daily Inverse VIX – Interesting right?  This is basically saying that there is zippo when it comes to volatility.  We’ve churned slowly, steadily higher for weeks/months.  Volatility sits at a historical low.  So makes sense that an ETF tracking the INVERSE of that would be doing well.  How about this?  Up 65% last 3 months.  This turned positive in our ETF advisory May, 2016.  Below $30 at the time.

What is the Weakest ETF right now?

Barclays iPath S&P500 Vix Short Term VXX – Well, that figures.  If the strongest is the inverse of the Volatility index, the weakest just might be this one right?!?  Down 43% in 90 days.

I also like looking at various Asset Classes.

Strongest Region?

Guggenhiem BRIC ETF.  Main reason?  Look at the strongest Country Indices on this same page.  Vaneck Vectors Russia ETF RSX (now that’s interesting given the heated politics right now involving Russia) and iShares MSCI Brazil ETF which also is part of the Guggenheim BRIC.

Weakest Region?

iShares MSCI Turkey ETF TUR.  This one turned bearish for us September, 2016 close to $40.  It’s not down substantially but given how strong the broader market is, it’s certainly a relative weak performer.

Strongest Sector?

Financials.  The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund XLF is up 20% in 3 months.

Weakest Sector?

Select Sector Utilities XLU.  About break-even over 3 months.

Strongest Industry?  SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF KRE up almost 30%.

Weakest Industry?  Guggenheim Solar ETF down nearly 10%.

Strongest Currency?  Brazilian Real (then the US Dollar)

Weakest Currency?  Japanese Yen

In our simplest portfolio, the Stocks & Bonds Portfolio Strategy we continue to hold the Schwab US Large Cap ETF but are definitely out of the iShares 30 Year Treasury Bonds TLT.  For example, if you’re 70% Stocks, 30% bonds you’d be sitting on 30% cash, in the market with 70%.  Bonds are slightly down since we got our exit back in November.

Even if you’re not trading many ETFs I always suggest looking through the various reports and examining like the above.  If you do this weekly, you’ll be amazed how your macro understanding of the global markets, sectors and sentiment will expand.

If anything, you can wow your friends and family at parties 😉

Have a great week.

 

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